I have seen several reports indicating that Rep. [fill in the blank] is/is not going to support passage of health care reform over the past several days, but I haven’t seen anyone actually aggregate them all in one place. I tried to do just that.

Results below (all are Democrats unless otherwise indicated; click on the “XX” in the vote column for the hyperlink to the story describing the Representative’s vote):

The vote count is obviously very fluid, and some of the individuals listed above have sent mixed signals on their possible vote. Where more than one position has been indicated, I have taken the most recent public position for inclusion in the table above.

Some of the votes above are also speculative. The identity of the “Stupak 12,” for example, has not been officially confirmed, but it is believed to include the individuals listed in the table in bold font (there are actually 14 names for the Stupak 12 listed, due to conflicting reports on the identity of the 12).

In summary, we have the following:

Former “No” Votes Now Voting:

Leaning Yes: 6

Leaning No: 1

Undecided: 5

Definitely Yes: 0

Definitely No: 15

Former “Yes” Votes Now Voting:

Leaning Yes: 0

Leaning No: 9

Undecided: 13

Definitely Yes: 1

Definitely No: 0

216 votes are now required to pass health care reform (Rep. Abercrombie, Rep. Wexler, and Rep. Murtha are not in the House anymore and were all former “yes” votes; Rep. Massa was a former “no” vote who is no longer in the House).

If the vote were held today, based on the table above, the vote would be (assuming all leaning votes are cast in the direction in which they are leaning and all others vote as they voted for the original House bill):

Yes: 201

No: 214

Undecided: 16

Counting all those who are “leaning yes” or “leaning no” as “undecided,” the tally as of now is as follows:

Undecided: 31

Speaker Pelosi has her work cut out for her.  Assuming all “leaning” votes are cast in the direction they are leaning, she will need to find 15 more votes to swing this in her favor (if leaning are counted as “undecided,” she will need to find 20 more votes). That said, this is certainly doable. She has 13 “undecided” votes to work with (or 31, depending on how you count it), plus 11 who have not expressed an opinion who previously voted “no” (see note below for the full list). Furthermore, any compromise on abortion could sway several of the “Stupak 12,” and it is even possible they may become convinced the current abortion language is sufficiently strong (see here for a good summary of why). Of the “Stupak 12,” the only Representatives thus far to have stated they will not vote for the bill without an abortion “fix” are Berry, Driehaus, Lipinski and Stupak.

This fight is far from over. Please call your representative today and push them to vote “yes” for health care reform.

NOTE: Several original “no” votes have not expressed an indication on how they will vote this time.  Those Representatives are: Barrow (GA), Boyd (FL), Chandler (KY), Childers (MS), Davis (TN), Griffith (AL), Holden (PA), Markley (CO), Melancon (LA), Shuler (NC), and Teague (NM) (11 total).

UPDATE: Dennis Kusinich added to the “no” column., Spratt added to the “undecided” column, and Kagan added to the “leaning no” column.

UPDATE II: Due to a helpful update on www.thehill.com, we have significantly updated the table from the earlier version. Earlier, I had placed all suspected members of the “Stupak 12″ into the “leaning no” category. The Hill has clarified that many of them should instead be listed as “undecided” instead, other than the four listed above who will not support the bill without changes to abortion language.

UPDATE III: Matheson moves to “undecided,” and Marshall moves to “no.”